GBI: Moldmaking Undertakes Slightly Slowing Contraction

GBI: Moldmaking activity recovered a point in September. Photo Credit, all images: Gardner Intelligence

Gardner Business Index (GBI) Moldmaking activity contracted for a sixth month in September. The month ended at a reading of 44.6, recovering one of two points lost in August. September marks the first point gain since March of this year.

All GBI components for the month continued to contract at slightly accelerated rates as some have done since late spring/early summer. Consequently, most of their activities can be summarized as “more of the same” for September. Employment saw a more moderate decline following a big drop in August. Production and backlog nearly leveled off. New orders and exports experienced slightly accelerated contraction.

Employment and supplier deliveries continue on “out of the ordinary” paths. (This graph is on a three-month moving average.)

Supplier deliveries crossed into contraction territory (i.e., shortening of supplier deliveries) for the first time since early on in pandemic in February 2020. The lengthening of supplier deliveries due to pandemic-induced supply chain disruption was extreme and rare. While Gardner Intelligence believes most of that chaotic impact is in the past, we do not want to see volume demands become so manageable that supplier deliveries continue to shorten.

Positive sentiment regarding future business dropped a bit in September, though it still maintains its healthy expansionary (aka “good”) position.